2012 doomsday

The 2012 phenomenon
comprises a range of
eschatological beliefs that
cataclysmic or transformative
events will occur on December
21 or December 23, 2012,[1][2]
which is said to be the end-date
of a 5,125-year-long cycle in the
Mayan Long Count calendar.
Various astronomical alignments
and numerological formulae
related to this date have been
proposed, but none have been
accepted by mainstream
scholarship.
A New Age interpretation of this
transition posits that during this
time, Earth and its inhabitants
may undergo a positive physical
or spiritual transformation, and
that 2012 may mark the
beginning of a new era.[3]
Others suggest that the 2012
date marks the end of the world
or a similar catastrophe.
Scenarios posited for the end of
the world include the Earth's
collision with a passing planet
(often referred to as " Nibiru") or
black hole, or the arrival of the
next solar maximum.
Scholars from various disciplines
have disputed the idea that a
catastrophe will happen in 2012,
suggesting that predictions of
impending doom are found
neither in classic Maya accounts
nor in contemporary science.
Mainstream Mayanist scholars
argue that the idea that the Long
Count calendar "ends" in 2012
misrepresents Maya history.[2][4]
To the modern Maya, 2012 is
largely irrelevant, and classic
Maya sources on the subject are
scarce and contradictory,
suggesting that there was little if
any universal agreement among
them about what, if anything, the
date might mean.[5] Meanwhile,
astronomers and other scientists
have rejected the apocalyptic
forecasts, on the grounds that
the anticipated events are
precluded by astronomical
observations, or are
unsubstantiated by the
predictions that have been
generated from these findings.
[6] NASA has compared fears
about 2012 to those about the
Y2K bug in the late 1990s,
suggesting that an adequate
analysis should preclude fears of
disaster.[6]
Mesoamerican Long Count
calendar
Main article: Mesoamerican Long
Count calendar
December 2012 marks the
ending of the current b'ak'tun
cycle of the Mesoamerican Long
Count calendar, which was used
in Central America prior to the
arrival of Europeans. Though the
Long Count was most likely
invented by the Olmec,[7] it has
become closely associated with
the Maya civilization, whose
classic period lasted from 250 to
900 AD.[8] The writing system of
the classic Maya has been
substantially deciphered,
meaning that a corpus of their
written and inscribed material
has survived from before the
European conquest.
The Long Count set its "zero
date" at a point in the past
marking the end of the previous
world and the beginning of the
current one, which corresponds
to either 11 or 13 August 3114
BC in the Proleptic Gregorian
calendar, depending on the
formula used.[9] Unlike the 52-
year calendar round still used
today among the Maya, the Long
Count was linear, rather than
cyclical, and kept time roughly in
units of 20, so 20 days made a
uinal, 18 uinals (360 days) made
a tun, 20 tuns made a k'atun, and
20 k'atuns (144,000 days) made
up a b'ak'tun. So, for example,
the Mayan date of 8.3.2.10.15
represents 8 b'ak'tuns, 3 k'atuns,
2 tuns, 10 uinals and 15 days
since creation. Many Mayan
inscriptions have the count
shifting to a higher order after
13 b'ak'tuns, or roughly 5,125
years.[10][11] Today, the most
widely accepted correlations of
the end of the thirteenth
b'ak'tun, or Mayan date
13.0.0.0.0, with the Western
calendar are either December 21
or December 23, 2012.[12]
In 1957, the early Mayanist and
astronomer Maud Worcester
Makemson wrote that "the
completion of a Great Period of
13 b'ak'tuns would have been of
the utmost significance to the
Maya".[13] The anthropologist
Munro S. Edmonson added that
"there appears to be a strong
likelihood that the eral calendar,
like the year calendar, was
motivated by a long-range
astronomical prediction, one that
made a correct solsticial forecast
2,367 years into the future in
355 B.C." (sic)[14] In 1966,
Michael D. Coe more ambitiously
asserted in The Maya that "there
is a suggestion ... that
Armageddon would overtake the
degenerate peoples of the world
and all creation on the final day
of the thirteenth [b'ak'tun].
Thus ... our present universe
[would] be annihilated [in
December 2012][a] when the
Great Cycle of the Long Count
reaches completion."[15]
Coe's apocalyptic connotations
were accepted by other scholars
through the early 1990s.[16] In
contrast, later researchers said
that, while the end of the 13th
b'ak'tun would perhaps be a
cause for celebration,[2] it did
not mark the end of the calendar.
[17] In their seminal work of
1990, the Maya scholars Linda
Schele and David Freidel, who
reference Edmonson, argue that
the Maya "did not conceive this
to be the end of creation, as
many have suggested,"[18] citing
Mayan predictions of events to
occur after the end of the 13th
b'ak'tun. Schele and Freidel note
that creation date was inscribed
at Coba as
13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.13.0.0.0.0,
with twenty units above the
k'atun. According to Schele and
Friedel, these 13s should be
treated as 0s, so the Coba
number would be read as if it
were
0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0,
with the units of each column
beyond the second (counting
from right to left) equal to 20
times those of the previous one
(The Maya, due to their cyclical
concept of time, also wrote the
date of creation, their zero date,
as 13.0.0.0.0).[19] This number
represented "the starting point
of a huge odometer of time".[18]
Schele and Freidel calculate that
the date at which this odometer
would run out lies some
4.134105 × 1028 years in the
future,[18] or 3 quintillion times
the age of the universe. The issue
is complicated further by the fact
that many different Maya city-
states employed the Long Count
in different ways. At Palenque,
evidence suggests that the priest
timekeepers believed the cycle
would end after 20 b'ak'tuns,
rather than 13. A monument
commemorating the ascension
of the king Pakal the Great
connects his coronation with
events as much as 4000 years
after, indicating that those
scribes did not believe the world
would end on 13.0.0.0.0.[19]
Maya references to B'ak'tun 13
The present-day Maya, as a
whole, do not attach much
significance to b'ak'tun 13.
Although the calendar round is
still used by some Maya tribes in
the Guatemalan highlands, the
Long Count was employed
exclusively by the classic Maya,
and was only recently
rediscovered by archaeologists.
[20] Mayan elder Apolinario Chile
Pixtun and Mexican archaeologist
Guillermo Bernal both note that
"apocalypse" is a Western
concept that has little or nothing
to do with Mayan beliefs. Bernal
believes that such ideas have
been foisted on the Maya by
Westerners because their own
myths are "exhausted".[21][22]
Mayan archaeologist Jose Huchm
has stated that "If I went to some
Mayan-speaking communities
and asked people what is going
to happen in 2012, they wouldn't
have any idea. That the world is
going to end? They wouldn't
believe you. We have real
concerns these days, like rain".
[21]
What significance the classic
Maya gave b'ak'tun 13 is
uncertain. Most classic Maya
inscriptions are strictly historical
and do not make any prophetic
declarations.[23] Two items in
the Maya historical corpus,
however, mention the end of the
13th b'ak'tun: Tortuguero
Monument 6 and, possibly, the
Chilam Balam.